By Walter L. Perry, John Gordon
Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have proven that U.S. forces desire more-effective strategies and approaches to behavior counterinsurgency. they're going to probably face comparable, abnormal conflict strategies from destiny enemies. This monograph examines the character of the modern rebel possibility and gives insights on utilizing operational research strategies to aid intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies.
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Consequently, our analysis must be local as well. We have already argued that, in order to capture the enemy’s adaptation, we must base our analysis on recent history. This is also true of the area to which we apply our analysis. In Baghdad, for example, there are several factions in the religious and ethnic groupings that operate within neighborhoods only. And although they are loosely connected, they may have purely local objectives and therefore operate diﬀerently from other groups in the city.
CHAPTER FIVE Intelligence Analysis The analytic tools needed to answer the research questions posed earlier are a mix of existing methods of analysis, some new approaches, and perhaps diﬀerent ways to apply existing methods. What follows is a discussion of several techniques that might be used, based on our experience in supporting coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our emphasis is on suggesting what we consider to be plausible techniques designed to attack the research questions posed earlier.
That said, the situation is not as bleak as one might expect based on the preceding discussion. Units in Iraq and Afghanistan have steadily improved their data collection—to include an increasingly rich set of friendly-force data made available through saved BFT reports and records kept at the unit level. However, as the coalition forces turn over control of provinces in Iraq, data collection and visibility into events on the ground are expected to diminish. 3 can be answered only in terms of what we refer to as indicators—what friendly units should look for when searching for such enemy activity as weapons caches, assembly sites, transportation routes, ﬁnanciers, and so forth.